“双碳”目标下石化行业关键低碳技术综合评估分析与减排贡献研究

作为主要的温室气体排放部门,石化行业在“双碳”目标下面临着巨大的减排压力,然而目前学术界对于石化行业排放特征、关键技术评估以及减排贡献的研究还不够深入。文章构建了石化低碳技术综合评估优化模型,基于实证数据识别企业排放特征,结合行业特点对关键低碳技术进行综合评估,测算“双碳”目标下低碳技术的减排贡献。结果表明,现阶段新兴低碳技术由于安全性、成本等因素无法在石化行业广泛应用,节能仍是企业短期减排的重要措施;长期来看,能源结构调整将发挥越来越重要的作用。此外不同板块企业的排放构成差异巨大,低碳技术选择也需有所侧重。

Integrated Assessment of Key Mitigation Technologies in Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry under Carbon Peaking and Neutrality Targets

The introduction of CO₂ emissions peaking and neutrality targets bring huge challenges to China's petroleum and petrochemical industry.However,there is not enough research on the emission characteristics,mitigation technologies assessment and optimization of this industry.This paper constructs an integrated assessment and optimization model for mitigation technologies,which includes the following three parts.Firstly,the model analyzes the emission characteristics based on enterprises'emissions data.Secondly,the model selects key mitigation technologies and conducts the integrated evaluation based on the emission characteristics.Thirdly,the combination of mitigation technologies for typical enterprises have been optimized.The results show that it is difficult to widely apply emerging mitigation technologies in petroleum and petrochemical industry at present due to safety,cost and other factors,and energy saving will still be an important measure for short-term emission reduction.In the long term,the adjustment of energy structure will play an increasingly important role.In addition,the emission composition of different enterprises varies greatly and they should apply different mitigation strategies.