滑坡灾害空间预测方法研究综述

滑坡灾害空间预测是对滑坡可能发生的空间位置的预测,目前已形成了多种结合GIS制图的空间预测方法。介绍了国内外多种常用的空间预测方法,结合实际应用对比了不同方法的特点及其适用性,认为确定性模型物理力学意义明确,但假设条件与所需参数类型较多;统计预测方法相对简单,应用广泛,但难以描述滑坡与相关因素之间的非线性关系;模式识别模型适用于非线性问题,但也存在计算耗时,参数难以确定和噪声影响等问题;模糊综合评判更适用于单体滑坡的评价。尽管空间预测模型朝着越来越复杂的方向发展,但预测研究必须建立在坚实的地质分析基础上。针对目前空间预测效果检验常用已发生的滑坡位置与预测结果重合度作为评判标准,认为采用不稳定斜坡和有复活迹象的古滑坡作为检验样本更为合理。大型复杂单体滑坡需要高精度的空间预测评价,针对不同单体滑坡建立确定性模型是更可行的方式。

Review on landslide hazard spatial prediction methods

The landslide hazard spatial prediction is to predict the possible spatial location of landslide. Up to now, a lot of spatial prediction methods have been developed combined with GIS mapping at home and abroad. This paper summarizes some commonly used spatial prediction methods and compares their advantages and disadvantages with real applications. It is concluded that deterministic models have clear physical and mechanical meaning, but the assumptions and parameters needed are too many; the statistical methods are relatively simple and used widely, but it's difficult to describe the non-linear relationships between landslide and their related factors; The mode recognition models are suitable for non-linear issues but existed some problems in application such as time consuming, parameter determination and noise influence; the fuzzy comprehensive judging method is more suitable for single landslide assessment. Although the prediction methods become more complex, the prediction research must be carried out on the basis of solid geological analysis. In accuracy verification of these methods, usually the overlap degree between the locations of the existing landslides and the prediction results is chosen as the judging criteria, so we believe that it would be more reasonable to take the unstable slopes and the reactive ancient landslides as study sample. Because the large complex single landslide needs high spatial prediction and assessment accuracy, it is more feasible to establish deterministic model for each single landslide.