扣件式钢管模板支撑方案的模糊风险分析模型

为确定经济合理的模板支撑方案,提出了基于可靠度分析和模糊集理论的扣件式钢管模板支撑方案的风险分析模型.利用施工现场调研统计资料,给出了扣件式钢管模板支撑架几何参数的概率模型.针对模板支撑架体系的主要失效模式,运用Monte Carlo数值模拟方法和插值法,计算了模板支撑架的体系可靠度.将模板支撑架体系的失效概率模糊化,建立了以模糊风险损失期望值最小为依据的风险决策模型.并通过对工程算例的风险分析,表明该模型考虑了支模方案中客观存在的众多不确定因素,兼顾了模板支撑架的安全性和经济性,可为支模方案的选择提供科学决策依据.

Model for fuzzy risk analysis of fastener-style tubular steel supported scheme

A model for risk analysis of fastener-style tubular steel(FSTS) supported scheme based on reliability analysis and fuzzy theory was proposed to obtain a safe and economic supported scheme.Making full use of site investigation data,probabilistic models for geometric parameter of FSTS formwork-support were established.In view of the significant failure modes of FSTS formwork-support system,reliability index was obtained by Monte Carlo simulation and interpolation technique.With the use of fuzzy failure probability,risk decision model based on minimum fuzzy risk loss expectation was presented.A case study showed that the model considered the numerous unavoidable risks in supported scheme,and satisfied safety and economy requirements for FSTS formwork-support.The results of risk analysis are useful in decision making for supported scheme selection.