黄河上游年最大洪峰流量规律研究

基于黄河上游年径流过程与年最大洪峰流量序列具有很好的相关性这一特点,采用功率谱分析法和灰关联分析法从微观和宏观两方面研究洪水规律。功率谱分析结果表明:黄河上游各水文站年最大洪峰流量序列具有一些周期谐波,但均没能通过显著性检验,因此难以建立确定性模型对年最大洪峰流量做出定量预报。通过太阳黑子周期性变化与黄河上游大洪水的相关性统计分析和灰关联度计算,表明黄河上游大尺度的天气系统与太阳黑子具有很好的相关性,因此可以通过太阳黑子的变化对年最大洪峰流量进行定性预测。

Law of annual maximum peak discharge at upper stream of the yellow river

Based on the characteristics of the better correlativity between annual runoff process and annual maximum peak flow series, the paper studied flood law in microcosmic and macroscopic aspects by applying the analysis method of power spectrum and grey relation. The results of power spectrum analysis show that the annual maximal peak flow series at upper reaches of the Yellow River has a few period harmonics, and they can not pass test of the building-up determinacy model. So it is difficult to forecast the maximum peak flow by establishing determination model. Through the correlativity statistic analysis and grey relational degree computation between macula cyclic change and flood of upper reaches of the Yellow River ,the results show that the big dimension weather system of upper reaches of the Yellow River and macula have very good correlativity. Therefore, it is possible to forecast the maximum peak flow according to the change of macula.