“龙抬头”——纸业走上改善的起点

2012年将是纸业中长期改善的起点,逻辑在于:(1)需求稳定增长:中国的造纸行业是一个消费、生产在国内,原料在国外的市场,这使得纸业的消费主要看国内,国外的变化对纸业的消费影响相对较弱;(2)供给增长减速:国内纸业消费量相对稳定增长,供给改善将是行业机会出现的大逻辑,预计供给2013年将明显改善;(3)行业盈利弹性将变大:过去几年纸业链条上的利润更多地留在了制浆环节,反映了制浆和抄纸环节的不同的供需关系,随着海外浆产能释放高峰的来临,未来产业链上的利润可能向抄纸环节转移,这将给纸业公司带来更大的业绩弹性。

Paper industry steps into the start of getting better

Mr.WAN You-lin,a analyst of Guojin Security,thinks 2012 will be the year when paper industry steps into the start of getting better to mid-and-long term.His opinion is based on following three points.The first is the steady growth in demand.China paper industry is reliable on a market with the consumption and production in domestic and raw materials in abroad,which make China paper consumption rely mainly on domestic market and the changes of overseas market are less effective on China paper industry.The second is that the supply growth becomes decreasing.The relatively steady growth in paper consumption domestic will bring an opportunity for paper industry to improve supply.It is predicted the supply situation will be improved significantly in 2013.The third is that the elasticity for industry to profit will get bigger.In the past few years,the profit of paper industry mainly came from pulping,which reflected the different relationship between supply and demand in pulping and papermaking.However,with the release of pulping capacity in overseas market,the profit in paper industry chain will be liable to transit into papermaking,which will result in more elasticity in achievement for papermaking companies.