基于认知分析的变电站人为可靠性分析方法

叙述了变电站设备可靠性分析方法和其他工业领域的人为可靠性分析研究历史,分析了变电站运行人员的操作行为和操作票制度,并指出了智能电网战略下数字化、无人值守变电站的发展趋势,以及程序化操作和远动执行装置的推广运用对运行人员具体操作的影响.结合电力操作独有的特点,修改基本的认知可靠性和误差分析模型,使其符合电力系统实际,提出了一种基于认知可靠性和误差分析模型的变电站人为操作可靠性分析方法.通过某变电站倒闸操作的案例分析,验证了模型的正确性,并指出模型的应用方向.

A method of human reliability analysis in substation

First of all,the analysis method of power equipment reliability in substation was summarized together with the history of human reliability analysis in industry except power system.The operation in the substation and operation ticket system were analyzed.The effects which come up with the development trend of digital unattended substation and the dissemination of sequential operation and telecontrol devices were sketched.Combined with the characteristics of the power operation,the basic CREAM was modified to meet the actual power system.A method of human reliability analysis in substation based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM) was proposed.Through a case study of electric switching operation in a substation,the accuracy of proposed model was proved,and the application of the model direction was ponted out.