基于点估计法的有源配电网概率可靠性评估

分布式可再生能源的接入增强了配电网可靠性的不确定性,而应用现有方法进行的配电网可靠性评估无法全面反映孤岛内电源和负荷的随机波动性,为此提出了基于点估计法的有源配电网概率可靠性评估方法。以蒙特卡洛模拟法为框架,首先确定有源配电网故障分区,建立孤岛随机变量概率模型,其次通过基于点估计法的独立随机变量非线性变换方法,对孤岛概率可靠性进行评估,最后将多次模拟故障的可靠性结果概率叠加,得出系统概率可靠性指标,实现了对有源配电网可靠性的全面评估和分析。通过对改造的IEEE RBTS Bus6中的多分支馈线模型进行仿真计算,验证了此种评估方法的有效性和准确性。

Active distribution network probabilistic reliability evaluation based on point estimation method

The access of distributed renewable energy enhances the uncertainty of the distribution network reliability, whereas the distribution network reliability evaluation using existing methods cannot fully reflect the stochastic volatility of islanding power supply and loads. For this reason the approach of active distribution network probabilistic reliability evaluation based on point estimation method is proposed. In the framework of Monte Carlo simulation, the active distribution network failed subzone is determined and the probabilistic models of islanding random variables are established firstly; then the islanding probabilistic reliability is assessed with a nonlinear transformation method of independent random variables based on point estimate method; finally, system probabilistic reliability indexes can be obtained from the probabilistic superimposing of the results of repeating simulated failures, achieving a comprehensive assessment and analysis to the active distribution network reliability. The simulation on the transformed multi-branch feeder model of the IEEE RBTS Bus6 verifies the validity and accuracy of this assessment approach.