Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for ignition of fiber‐reinforced polymer panels

The ignition characteristics of combustible solids are affected by many factors such as material properties, external heating source, and surrounding environmental conditions. In practice, these factors can vary significantly from one application to another. Thus, it is important to evaluate the sensitivity and uncertainty aspects of the effect of these factors on ignition. This study attempts to achieve this goal through sensitivity and uncertainty analyses on the piloted ignition of fiber‐reinforced polymer (FRP) composite panels. A Monte Carlo simulation using the Latin hypercube sampling method was employed to conduct sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. An integral model combining a general thermal thickness model with a heating rate‐related ignition temperature criterion was used as the ignition prediction model. Time‐to‐ignition was evaluated as the output parameter against the variations of input parameters such as material properties, external heating source, and surrounding environmental conditions. In addition, to identifying important sensitivity factors and uncertainty ranges of piloted ignition, a critical thermal thickness was found for the composite panels. These findings can serve as guides for the fire safety design of FRP composite materials for various applications. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.