常规武器对人口毁伤的计算和防护效率分析

常规武器袭击下城市人口毁伤计算和防护效率分析是城市防常规武器毁伤分析的重要组成部分。与核武器毁伤相比,常规武器对城市的毁伤范围、破坏程度等要轻微得多,从人防防护的角度而言也要容易得多。但是,常规武器袭击下城市人口的毁伤计算比核毁伤人口计算要复杂的多,难度也大的多,而且国内外对此也未作系统研究。本文试图对该问题进行必要的简化和假定,采用Monte-Carlo方法取得求解模型。在确定预警条件下,人防工程防常规武器防护效率的计算公式与抗核武器防护效率的计算公式有相同的形式,本文仍以人员生存率提高幅度来表示。

Computation of Population Destrucion by Convetional Weapons and Analysis on Protective Efficiency

Computation of population destruction by conventional wea-pons and analysis on protective efficiency are the main parts for ana-lysis on. resistance of a city to destruction by conventional weapon. In comparison with nuclear weapon, the scale and degree of destruction by conventional ones are much less and the organization of civil defence is easier. But the computation of urban population destruction by conven-tioal weapons is more difficult and complicated. To find a model for solving this problem by Monte Carlo method, simplification and assump-tion have been suggested. The form of equation for calculating protective efficiency of resistance of civil defence object to conventional weapons is similar to that for nuclear weapons, it is expressed by the enhancement of personal survival probability.