基于改进样板机法的风光互补新能源电站容量配比优化

风光等新能源电站出力具有间歇性和波动性,合理的风光容量配比可以充分实现二者的互补。不准确的电站理论功率计算会影响风光真实特征的提取,进而导致较大的容量配比误差。本文在新能源电站理论功率计算所通常采用的样板机法基础上进行改进,首先对异常数据进行识别及重构,然后识别新能源电站中的异常样板机并更新样板机集合,进一步根据非样板机的实际运行情况选取动态信息窗,利用动态信息窗内样板机和非样板机的实测功率,对非样板机分组并动态识别每组非样板机的比例系数,从而计算新能源电站的理论功率。基于多年历史理论功率对新能源电站进行特征分析,模拟随机出力场景,并进行场景筛选,建立了基于源荷不匹配风险的风光配比优化方法。通过算例验证了改进样板机法的准确性,利用该方法得到西北某地区电网风、光伏电站多年的改进理论功率数据,并优化得到该地区的风光最优配比。

Capacity ratio optimization of wind-solar hybrid new energy power station based on improved model-generator method

The output of wind and solar power plants is intermittent and fluctuating, and reasonable wind and solar capacity ratio can fully realize their complementarity. Inaccurate theoretical power calculation of power station will affect the extraction of true features of wind and solar, and then lead to larger capacity matching error. In this paper, based on the model machine method commonly used in theoretical power calculation of new energy power stations, the abnormal data are firstly identified and reconstructed, and then the abnormal model machines are identified and updated. Furthermore, according to the actual operation of non-model machines, the dynamic information window is selected. By using the measured power of model machines and non-model machines in the dynamic information window, the non-model machines are grouped and the scale coefficient of each group of non-model machines is dynamically identified, thus calculating the theoretical power of new energy power stations. Based on the theoretical power of many years of history, this paper analyzes the characteristics of new energy power plants, produces random output scenarios, screens the scenarios, and establishes a wind-solar ratio optimization method based on the risk of source-load mismatch. The accuracy of the improved model machine method is verified by examples. By using this method, the improved theoretical power data of wind and photovoltaic power plants in a certain area of northwest China are obtained, and the optimal ratio of wind and solar capacity in this area is optimized.