基于异方差检验的水文过程隐含周期分析模型及其应用——Ⅱ应用

根据作者在前文中建立的检测水文时序隐含周期的模型方案,本文对新疆塔里木河流域的阿拉尔水文站和新渠满水文站1784~1997年的年天然径流数据进行周期分析。在利用对数变换降低其异方差性的基础上,分别建立AR(4)与AR(2)时间序列模型,给出了两径流的统计运行规律。并在此基础上,通过计算判定得到两个水文站的天然径流序列都存在42.7年隐含周期。最后,利用方差分析周期检验方法作了印证性讨论。实例分析表明,本文提出的基于异方差检验的水文过程隐含周期分析模型是对水文时序规律更深刻的挖掘。

Crytic period analysis model of hydrological process based on herteroscedasticity test and its application Ⅱ. Application

The scheme of detecting crytic period proposed by the authors is applied to analyze the periods of annual natural runoff data from 1784 to 1997 in the Alaer and Xinquman Hydrological Station,Talimu River basin.Based on the logarithm transformation for weakening herteroscedasticity,the AR(4) and AR(2) time series models are established to present their statistical law.It is found that the natural runoffs in these two stations have the same crytic period analysis period of 42.7 years.Finally,variance analysis is used to verify the validity of the crytic model.The result shows that the model is highly effective for finding the period of hydrological time series.