结构可靠性设计的Bayes及Fiducial模式

本文对结构强度及载荷变差系数分别未知的情况，推导了共轭型先验分布时结构可靠性安全系数的Bayes精确限，它由广义非中心t分布的非线性方程给出。当取无信息先验分布时，安全系数的Bayes限与Fiducial限相等。据此已算出了结构可靠性设计的安全系数上限数表。同时，还推导了强度及载荷变差系数均未知时，安全系数上限满足的积分方程。

FIDUCIAL AND BAYES MODEL FOR DESIGN OF STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY

In this paper, the exact Bayes limits for safety factor of structural reliability for the conjugate prior distribution are derived when one of two coefficients Cx (coefficient of variation of strength) and Cy (coefficient of variation of load) is unknown Which are given by the nonlinear equation for CDF of generalized noncentral t-distribution, When the noninformative prior distribution is taken on normal distribution, the exact Bayes limits are equal to the exact Fiducial limits The tables of upper limits of the safety factor for structural reliability design are computed .Meanwhile the integral equation for upper limits of the safety factor when both Cx and Cy are unknown is present and the method is illustrated.