高拱坝施工的SD-ABMS混合仿真建模研究

针对现有的高拱坝施工仿真多采用离散事件仿真（discrete event simulation，DES）这一建模方法，难以从微观层面精细地描述大坝施工复杂系统中的个体行为，同时仿真模型缺乏对关键连续因素的复杂作用关系进行定量分析的问题，提出高拱坝施工的SD-ABMS混合仿真建模方法。首先采用基于多智能体的仿真与建模方法（agent-based modeling and simulation，ABMS），依据高拱坝施工流程，抽象出拌和楼、自卸汽车、缆机、施工仓面四种Agent和详细的混凝土转运过程，对各Agent的行为以及它们之间的相互作用进行建模；同时，对影响施工效率的各种连续因素，基于系统动力学方法（system dynamics，SD）进行建模，定量分析疲劳、熟练度等连续影响因素对施工效率的影响；最后，以工作时间、缆机循环时间等为接口变量，建立高拱坝施工的SD-ABMS混合仿真模型。工程应用表明，与传统DES模型以及单一ABMS模型相比，仿真结果与工程实际偏差率分别平均缩小了4.83%和3.5%，为高拱坝施工过程精细化仿真分析提供了新的思路。

Research on SD-ABMS hybrid simulation modeling of high arch dam construction

Most of the previous simulations of high arch dam construction have adopted a discrete event simulation (DES) modeling method, but it is difficult to describe the individual behaviors in the complex construction system from the micro level, and its simulation model lacks quantitative analysis of the complex relationship between key continuous factors. A SD-ABMS hybrid simulation modeling method of high arch dam construction is proposed. First, the ABMS method is used to abstract, from the real construction process, four agents and a concrete delivery process－including mixing floor, dump trucks, cable machines, and construction bin surface; the behavior of each agent and their interaction are modeled. Then, various continuous factors that affect construction efficiency are modeled based on the SD method; their influences－such as those of fatigue and proficiency on construction efficiency－are analyzed quantitatively. Finally, based on SD-ABMS, a hybrid simulation model is constructed and equipped with the interface variables of working time and cable machine cycle time. Engineering application shows that compared with the traditional DES model or the single ABMS model, this hybrid model reduces the average simulation deviation from the real case by 4.8% and 3.5% respectively, demonstrating a new idea for refined simulations of arch dam construction.