基于博弈论-云模型的园区能源系统3E评价方法*

园区是实现“3060”双碳目标的重要载体,为促进园区建立清洁高效的能源系统,有必要对园区能源系统评价方法进行深入研究。首先从能源、经济、环境层面选取7个有代表性的指标构成评价指标体系,利用博弈论方法组合层次分析法与熵权法得到的主客观权重计算出最优化指标权重;其次运用云模型,输入评分等级数字特征以建立评价云并计算指标隶属度矩阵,结合指标权重得到评价方案的评分等级。最后将该博弈论-云模型法应用于广东省华南中医药园区评选出最优供能方案,并采用博弈论-灰色关联法、博弈论-逼近理想解排序法对评价结果进行验证,结果表明,博弈论-云模型法具有充分的有效性和可靠性。

Game Theory-Cloud Model Based 3E Evaluation Method of Park Energy System

The park is an important vehicle to achieve the dual carbon goals of “3060”. In order to promote the establishment of the clean and efficient energy system in the park, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth study on the evaluation method of the energy system in the park. In this paper, seven representative indicators were selected from energy, economy, and environment levels to form the evaluation index system. The game theory method was adopted to combine the subjective and objective weights obtained by the analytic hierarchy process method and the entropy weight method to get the optimal index weights. Secondly, the cloud model was applied to establish the evaluation cloud by inputting the numerical characteristics of the rating levels and calculating the index affiliation matrix and then combining the index weights to obtain the rating levels of the evaluation scheme. Finally, the game theory-cloud model was applied to South China Chinese Medicine Park to select the optimal energy supply scheme, and the evaluation results were verified by the game theory-grey correlation method and the game theory-TOPSIS method. Therefore, the game theory-cloud model was proved to be effective and reliable.