基于DEMATEL算法对丙烷脱氢装置系统安全风险因素相关性研究

为提高丙烷脱氢装置系统风险管理能力，建立丙烷脱氢装置系统风险影响因素模型；运用预先危险性分析(PHA)辨识出危害因素，使用故障类型和影响分析(FMEA)方法找到丙烷脱氢装置不安全事件和风险管理对象并提出风险影响因素集，辨识出反应器火灾、爆炸和脱氢反应失控的风险，分析风险发生的原因并提出管控措施。归纳丙烷脱氢装置系统中装置操作人员、运行设备、物料本身、装置安全管理情况、装置运行环境5个维度下的风险影响因素集。提出运用决策试验与评价实验室方法(DEMATEL算法)分析丙烷脱氢装置系统安全风险因素的相互关系。结果表明：在丙烷脱氢装置系统安全风险管控时，应考虑7个原因因素和13个结果因素之间的关系；物料的腐蚀性对丙烷脱氢装置系统风险影响最大；安全风险意识极易受到其他因素的影响；教育培训在丙烷脱氢装置系统中起到最重要的作用。

RESEARCH ON THE CORRELATION OF SAFETY RISK FACTORS OF PROPANE DEHYDROGENATION (PDH) UNIT SYSTEM BASED ON DEMATEL ALGORITHM

In order to improve the capability of system risk management of propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit, a risk influencing factor model of PDH unit system was established. Hazardous factors were identified by the Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA).Unsafe events and risk management objects of the PDH unit were obtainedby using Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method.The set of risk influencing factorsto identifythe risks of fire, explosion and dehydrogenation reaction out-of-control in the reactor andto analyze the cause of the risk andcontrol measures were put forward. This paper summarizedtheriskfactors of thePDH unit system in five dimensions: plant operator, operation equipment, materialitself, plant safety management situation, plant operation environment. The relationship between the safety risk factors of the PDH unit systemwas analyzed bythe Decision Making Trial andEvaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) algorithm. The results showed that the relationship between 7 causal factors and 13 result factors should be considered in the system safety risk control of PDH unit;the corrosion of the materials had the greatest influenceon the risk of the PDH unitsystem;the safety risk awareness was easily affected by other factors;and education and training playedthe most important role in the PDH unit system.