立足能源—经济—环境关系对电力碳达峰碳中和路径的战略思考

实现碳达峰、碳中和是一场广泛而深刻的经济社会系统性变革。电力行业作为我国最主要的碳排放部门之一，在承接来自其他行业碳排放转移的过程中，将逐渐成为碳减排的核心枢纽。电力碳达峰、碳中和路径不仅关乎行业自身发展，更将影响全局目标实现。按照国家多重战略部署，能源向构建新型电力系统发展，经济向新发展格局转向，环境向碳达峰、碳中和迈进，能源、经济、环境领域正在发生同步重大调整，研究电力行业碳达峰、碳中和路径需要立足这一全局开展思考。构建由“可持续发展三角”和“能源不可能三角”组成的“双三角”理论框架，分析了电力行业碳减排与经济、环境的关系变化，提出了以能源绿色发展引领经济社会绿色发展、发挥电力产业创新和带动作用、注重安全风险防范、采用先慢后快减排路径、科学分配碳预算等思考与建议。

Strategic Thinking of the Path for Electric Power Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality on Basis of Energy-Economy-Environment Relations

Realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality is an extensive and profound economic and social revolution. As one of China’s main carbon-emitting sectors, the electric power industry will gradually become the critical decarbonization pivot in the shifting process of carbon emission from other industries. The path for electric power carbon peak and carbon neutrality is not only related to its own industrial development but also influences fulfillment of the goals nationwide. According to China's multiple strategic deployment, energy is in transition to a new electric power system while the economy is in transition to a new development paradigm and the environment is moving towards carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Significant adjustments in the energy, economic and environmental areas are simultaneously taking place. The study of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality path for electric power industry should be based on the nation’s whole situation. At this background, the “double-triangle” theoretical framework composed of “sustainable development triangle” and "impossible energy trinity" is proposed,and the changes in the relations of decarbonization in the electric power sector with the economic and environmental sectors are analyzed. A number of suggestions are put forward, such as leading the green development of the economy and society with the green development of energy, giving play to the innovation and leading role of the electric power industry, paying attention to the prevention of security risks, adopting the path of reducing emissions first slowly and then quickly, and scientifically allocating carbon budgets.