基于贝叶斯网络的城市消防安全协同治理效果评估

为精细化指导城市消防安全协同治理的优化和均衡发展，以当前城市消防安全的源头治理、火灾风险防控、安全监督管理和安全保障能力四个方面的数据为基础，建立了评估城市消防安全协同治理效果的贝叶斯网络。基于贝叶斯网络前后向推理，确定了四个方面的达标值，认为城市火灾防范协同治理应从公共消防基础设施建设、应急联动建设、消防监督执法力量和消防安全培训等环节加强建设。并针对应急管理局与消防救援队在火灾风险防控方面的协同治理进行剖析，结果认为仍需在灭火救援力量配备和应急联动建设方面加强协同治理。

Bayesian network-based assessment of the effectiveness of collaborative urban fire management

Abstract: To provide refined guidance for the optimization and balanced development of collaborative urban fire safety management, this paper establishes a Bayesian network for the effect of collaborative urban safety management based on data from four aspects of current urban fire safety source governance, fire risk prevention and control, safety supervision and management, and safety security capacity. Based on Bayesian network backward and forward reasoning, it is known that four aspects of the attainment values are identified, which should be strengthened from public fire protection infrastructure construction, emergency linkage construction, fire protection supervision and law enforcement force and fire safety training. And for the emergency management bureau and the fire and rescue division in the fire risk prevention and control of collaborative governance, it is necessary to strengthen the rescue forces allocation and emergency linkage construction.