1960-2020广东汛期降水的时空变异性分析北大核心CSCD

城市内涝等灾害会给人民生命财产和社会经济造成巨大损失,而其主要驱动因子为降水,因此科学、全面认识降水量的分布规律及发展趋势对城市防洪减灾至关重要。本文采用广东26个站点1960—2020的月降水数据,基于空间插值、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验和小波分析等方法,对广东汛期降水的空间变异性、趋势性、突变点与周期性进行分析。研究表明广东按站点月降水量的峰值特征可分为四个降水类型区,各月之间、沿海与内陆降水量年际变化不同步,并阐明了前、后汛期降水高值中心与低值区的空间转移过程。按沿海/内陆-前/后汛期分组分析,对各组降水年际变化判定了趋势和显著性突变点,并识别了各个最强周期尺度下的主周期。

Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over Guangdong Province during flood seasons of 1960 to 2020

Precipitation is a key driving factor of urban flooding and other flood disasters that can result in huge losses in human lives, property and social economy. Therefore, a science-based comprehensive understanding of its distribution pattern and development trend is essential for urban flood control and disaster mitigation. This paper presents an analysis of the spatial variability, time trend, and periodicity of the precipitation over Guangdong Province in flood season, using the methods of spatial interpolation, Mann-Kendall test, moving t test, and wavelet analysis, based on the monthly precipitation data of 1960 to 2020 at 26 stations. Results indicate this province can be partitioned into four zones with different peak characteristics of the monthly precipitation at the stations. And changes in precipitation were not synchronous between different months or between coastal and inland regions. We demonstrate the spatial paths traced by the high-value center and low-value zones of precipitation that moved along in flood season. By grouping precipitation sequences into coastal vs inland and pre-flood vs post-flood types, the trends and significant mutation points of each group are detected; the dominant cycles of each group on the significant cycle scale are identified.