实现碳中和目标的路径与对策

我国力争于2030年前达到二氧化碳排放峰值,努力争取2060年前实现碳中和,这对加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型、实现高质量发展、全面建设社会主义现代化强国具有重大意义。为实现碳达峰、碳中和,我国能源系统需进行全方位变革,积极推动能源系统相关碳排放尽快达峰后快速下降,加快煤炭减量和非化石能源替代,统筹好阶段目标,同步推进终端用能电气化和电力部门低碳化。技术布局上,达峰期（2030年前）,要高质量达峰兼顾经济社会可持续发展;平台期（2030—2035年）,巩固碳达峰成果,开展新型低碳前沿技术布局;下降期（2035—2060年）,需加快脱碳步伐,大规模布局CCUS等技术;同时加强前沿性、颠覆性技术研发。研究提出了建立健全能源需求侧节能低碳转型的政策体系,完善能源供应侧清洁低碳化的保障机制,建立更加积极的碳利用政策环境等对策,为进一步研究碳达峰、碳中和发展战略提供理论参考。

PathwayandStrategyto Realize Carbon Neutrality Goals

China strives to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emission before 2030 and bring about carbon neutrality before 2060. These efforts are of great significance to China in acceleration o f the economic and social development and green transition, realization of high-quality development, and building the nation into socialist modern power. To reach carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China should fully transform its energy system, rapidly reduce carbon emission related to the energy system after the carbon peak, accelerate reduction of coal consumption and increase of non-fossil energy substitutes, coordinate the efforts for the goals at various stages, and simultaneously promote electrification of end energy consumers and low-carbonization of the electric power sector. From the technological prospective, the carbon peak should be reached at high quality with sustainable economic and social development taken into account during the peak-reaching period (prior to 2030). The achievements from the carbon peak should be consolidated with distribution of the new-type low-carbon frontier technology during the platform period (2030-2035). It is necessary to accelerate decarbonizing pace and make a large-scale use of CCUS technology in the declining period (2035-2060). Meanwhile, the efforts should be strengthened for research and development of frontier and disruptive technology. This study proposes a number of countermeasures, such as establishing and perfecting the policy system of energy demand-side energy-saving and low-carbon transition, perfecting energy supply-side clean low-carbon guarantee mechanism, and establishing a more active policy environment for carbon utilization, thus providing theoretical references for further research on the carbon peak and carbon neutrality development strategy.