加速发展天然气产业是我国能源结构调整的核心任务之一

加速发展天然气产业应是我国能源结构调整的核心任务之一。由非常规天然气带动的天然气"革命"为世界天然气产业发展创造了有利的资源条件,全球天然气过剩,价格下降。目前我国天然气在一次能源结构中所占的比例仍然过低,只达到世界水平的1/4左右,而提升天然气的消费比例与提高综合能效具有正相关关系。综合考虑,"十二五"末我国天然气在一次能源消费中的比例应达到12%～15%,甚至更多一些。21世纪以来我国常规天然气储产量增长迅速,新增探明天然气储量已连续7年保持在5000×108m3以上。预计2020年我国天然气年产量将达到2000×108m3,2030年前后可达到2500×108～3000×108m3,加上从国外进口的天然气(包括沿海进口的LNG)和煤制气的发展,天然气消费总量将达4500×108m3,占国内一次能源消费比重可望有一个大幅度的提升。"十二五"期间我国煤层气开采可望首先获得突破性进展,而页岩气正处于勘探开发起步的关键时期,国家在加强领导的同时要加大扶持力度。天然气储运工程对于天然气产业和市场的发展非常重要,"十二五"期间成立中国天然气管道总公司的条件已经成熟。

Accelerating the Growth of Natural Gas Industry is One of the Key Tasks for China to Adjust its Energy Mix

Accelerating the growth of the natural gas industry should be one of the key tasks China needs to fulfill in adjusting its energy mix.The natural gas ＂revolution＂ driven by the exploration of unconventional natural gas has created favorable resource conditions for the growth of the world′s natural gas industry-global natural gas supply exceeds demand,resulting in a decline in natural gas price.Natural gas still represents a pretty low share of China′s primary energy mix,which is only about one fourth of the world′s average level.Raising the share of natural gas in a country′s energy mix is in direct proportion to the rise in overall energy efficiency.With all relevant factors considered,the author of the article believes the share of natural gas in the country′s primary energy mix should reach 12%-15% or even more by the end of the Twelfth Five Year Plan period.Since the start of the 21st century,China′s production and reserves of conventional natural gas have been growing rapidly.China has witnessed an annual proven gas reserve increase of more than 5000×108m3 for seven consecutive years.China′s natural gas production is expected to reach 2000×108m3 by 2020 and 2500×108～3000×108m3 around 2030.If imported natural gas and coal-derived gas are included（including LNG）,China′s natural gas consumption will reach 4500×108m3 and the share of natural gas in China′s primary energy mix is expected to rise dramatically.China is expected to achieve a breakthrough first in production of coalbed methane during the Twelfth Five Year Plan period.The development of shale gas is now in a key early stage and the country should step up its support to this sector while continuing to guide its development.Natural gas storage and transportation is very important to the development of the natural gas industry as well as the natural gas market.The conditions for establishing China Natural Gas Pipeline Corporation will become mature in the Twelfth Five Year Plan period.