高保真数值核反应堆不确定度量化方法研究进展

基于高保真模型和方法的数值反应堆具有高精度和高分辨率的特点，但核数据等参数固有的不确定度将严重影响其分析结果的不确定度。本文在综述国内外数值反应堆及其不确定度量化研究进展的基础上，重点介绍了西安交通大学核工程计算物理（NECP）实验室近年来在基于一步法的高保真数值反应堆程序NECP-X的研发与验证、核数据协方差数据库制作、基于确定论和抽样方法的不确定度传递方法研究及程序开发、核数据（包括截面、瞬发裂变谱、散射角分布等）的不确定度传递以及时空瞬态计算中的不确定度量化等方面的研究进展，提出了COST先进抽样方法，并首次基于高保真数值反应堆程序量化了各类核参数的协方差在堆芯稳态和瞬态分析中的不确定度传递，对于数值反应堆的工程应用具有重要意义。 

Research Progresses of Uncertainty Quantification Methods for High Fidelity Numerical Nuclear Reactor

Numerical reactor based on high fidelity model and method is with the characteristics of high precision and high resolution, but the inherent uncertainty of nuclear data and other parameters will seriously affect the uncertainty of numerical reactor analysis results. Based on the review of the research progresses of numerical reactors and its uncertainty quantification in the world, this paper focuses on the research progresses in NECP Laboratory of Xi’an Jiaotong University in recent years, including the development of one-step high fidelity numerical reactor program NECP-X, the generation of nuclear data covariance database, the uncertainty propagation method based on deterministic method and sampling method, and the uncertainty quantification in transient calculation. An advanced sampling method COST is proposed. Based on the high fidelity numerical reactor program, the uncertainty propagation of covariance of various nuclear parameters in the steady-state and transient analysis of the reactor core is quantified for the first time, which is of great significance for engineering application of numerical reactors.