成因法与统计法油气资源评价对比分析

对成因法、统计法及相关常用方法的数学模型、基本特征及各自适用性和局限性进行对比分析。以盆地模拟技术为代表的成因法,实质上是一种石油地质综合分析的方法,它除了定量估算油气资源量外,还能提供各种有价值的成果图,但今后亟待进一步完善油气运移、聚集模块,提高资源量估算结果的可靠性。统计法是根据勘探程度较高探区内油气田储量(产量)某种变化趋势或假设油气藏规模服从某种分布,建立相关数学模型进行资源量预测,在此着重介绍对数正态分布、截断偏移帕雷托分布、广义帕雷托分布、油藏规模序列法和翁氏生命旋回等几种实用的统计法模型。在实际工作中,应该根据探区油气地质条件和勘探程度,尽量选择多种模型进行交叉验证,以保证估算结果的可靠性。 

COMPARISON OF GENETIC AND STATISTICAL METHODS FOR PETROLEUM RESOURCE ASSESSMENT

Genetic method, statistical method and their relevant mathematic models, basic features and applicability and confines are contrasted in this paper. In fact, genetic method mainly represented by basin simulation technology is a kind of comprehensive method for petroleum geology analysis, which not only quantitatively estimates petroleum resources, but also provides many sorts of valuable outcome maps. But from now on, some further research should be taken urgently to improve petroleum migration and accumulation module, so as to enhance the reliability of resource estimation. Statistical method establishes relevant mathematical models to estimate petroleum resources in the exploration area with higher exploration maturity, according to the changing trend of petroleum reserves (output) or supposing that, pool size submits to a certain distribution function. Some kinds of utility models of statistic method are introduced, such as lognormal distribution, truncated shifted Pareto distribution, generalized Pareto distribution, pool size sequence and Weng's life cycle. In practice, many kinds of models should be chosen to make crosswise verification according to petroleum geology condition and exploration maturity, so as to ensure the reliability of estimation result.