电子装备加速实验中的故障预测方法

现代电子装备结构复杂，故障规律难以掌握。而通过对装备组成单元故障规律的研究可推导出装备整体故障规律并进行故障预测。本文着手于对装备组成单元故障规律和故障预测方法的研究。首先利用加速试验来缩短装备组成单元试验时间，获取大量故障规律信息；对加速试验的数据进行了处理；然后基于灰色预测理论，将加速试验中获得的故障规律外推，推测出装备组成单元在正常应力水平下的故障规律并进行故障预测；最后利用相似度和“年老”隶属函数给出了预测结果的可信度。

Electronic Equipment Fault Predicting Method Based on Accelerated Stress Lifetime Test

It is difficult to grasp the fault regularity of complex structure of modern electronic equip?ment. The whole equipment fault rule can be inferred and predicted from that of units which compose the equipment. The fault rule and prediction method of the units were studied in this paper. It is the realizing steps oi the unit fault prediction method that the unit testing time was shortened by accelerat?ed stress lifetime test to acquire a great deal of fault rule information; the acquired data were pro-cessed ;the fault rule and prediction of the units under normal environment conditions were deduced from the processed data by the grey predicting theory; the confidence of predicted results was given by similarity and membership grade function of “the old aged” .