改进G1-RS-UMT模型在某配水工程围岩稳定预测中的应用

围岩稳定是保证水工隧洞工程安全稳定的重要前提。以某配水工程水工隧洞为研究背景，以提升长距离输水隧洞中围岩稳定性等级预测精度为目标，构建了多因素水工隧洞围岩稳定性预测指标体系，划分了围岩稳定等级，采用G1-改进RS法对影响指标进行主客观赋权，并引用博弈论理论运算组合权重，最后基于未确知测度理论提出改进G1-RS-UMT模型，完成了围岩稳定等级预测。结果表明：某配水工程B4标段水工隧洞中9个典型断面中GS19+590～GS20+050段围岩处于不稳定状态，GS21+340～GS28+061里程范围内8段围岩皆处为局部稳定状态。通过论证，改进G1-RS-UMT模型预测结果相比于TOPSIS模型其准确度更高，预测等级与实际情况相符合程度由66.67%提高到了88.89%。该研究为围岩稳定性预测提供了一种新的定量方法，为水工隧洞围岩稳定性预测结果提供更加有效的支撑。

Application of improved G1-RS-UMT model to stability prediction of surrounding rock in a water resources allocation project

The stability of the surrounding rock is the prerequisite for the safe and stable operation of hydraulic tunnel projects. Taking the hydraulic tunnel of a water resources allocation project as the research object, aiming to improve the prediction accuracy of surrounding rock stability grade of long-distance water conveyance tunnels, a multi-factor hydraulic tunnel surrounding rock stability prediction index system was constructed, and the stability grades of the surrounding rock of different tunnel sections were categorized. Then, G1-improved RS theory was adopted to weight the impact indicators subjectively and objectively, and game theory was used to calculate the combined weights. Finally, based on the unascertained measurement theory (UMT), an improved G1-RS-UMT model was proposed to predict the stability grade of the surrounding rock. The results show that among the nine typical sections of the hydraulic tunnel in the B4 section of a water resources allocation project, the surrounding rock of GS19+590-GS20+050 is in an unstable state, and the other eight sections within the mileage range of GS21+340-GS28+061 are all in partially stable state. According to the comparative analysis, the prediction result of the improved G1-RS-UMT model is more accurate than that of the TOPSIS model, and the degree of consistency between the predicted result and the actual situation has increased from 66.67% to 88.89%. This research provides a new approach for the prediction of surrounding rock stability of hydraulic tunnels with more accurate and effective prediction results.