| 基于改进相似日的超短期负荷预测法 |
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| 引用本文： | 范宏,程浩忠,贾德香,熊虎岗,陈明,马鸿杰. 基于改进相似日的超短期负荷预测法[J]. 华东电力, 2006, 34(4): 7-9 |
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| 作者姓名： | 范宏 程浩忠 贾德香 熊虎岗 陈明 马鸿杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海交通大学,电气工程系,上海,200030;上海市电力公司,调度通讯中心,上海,200122 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市科技攻关项目 , 高等学校优秀青年教师教学科研奖励计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 在充分掌握上海电网负荷特性之后,针对上海市调AGC控制要求,提出一种基于改进相似日的超短期负荷预测方法.该法利用相似日的每两点负荷变化值相似,依概率预测未来负荷变化趋势,能准确计算未来5 min负荷值.通过算例结果分析可知,该法预测误差较好,具有较强的适应性.
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷特性 改进相似日 超短期负荷预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-9529(2006)04-0007-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-02-06 |
A method for ultra-short term load forecast based on improved similar historical day data |
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| FAN Hong,CHENG Hao-zhong,JIA De-xiang,XIONG Hu-gang,CHEN Ming,MA Hong-jie. A method for ultra-short term load forecast based on improved similar historical day data[J]. East China Electric Power, 2006, 34(4): 7-9 |
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| Authors: | FAN Hong CHENG Hao-zhong JIA De-xiang XIONG Hu-gang CHEN Ming MA Hong-jie |
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| Abstract: | After the fully grasping of the load characteristics in shanghai,a method for ultra-short term load forecast based on improved similar historical day data has been proposed according to the requirement of AGC control of Shanghai control center.The method adopts the character that the change of two load-points is near same in similar day,according to some percentage forecast the load movement,it can accurately calculate the load of the next 5 minutes.Its practical application shows that its error analysis index is better and it has good applicability. |
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| Keywords: | load characteristics improved similar historical day ultra-short term load forecast |
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