Prediction of cure of hypertension in atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis

We analysed the outcome of 63 consecutive, adequate interventions for atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis and hypertension: 34 patients had percutaneous transluminal renal angioplasty, and 29 had surgical correction. Hypertension was cured in 21% of patients and improved in 47%, but 32% failed to respond. We analyzed clinical variables predictive of cure. Duration of hypertension, level of diastolic blood pressure, and sex were found to be predictive of cure. The highest probability of cure was found in men with a duration of hypertension of less than 10 years and an initial diastolic blood pressure of greater than 80 mm Hg. Use of these clinical variables in a tree-based model correctly classified 80% of cases, with a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 77%. We conclude that a tree-based clinical algorithm based on only three clinical criteria correctly predicted cure of hypertension in most patients with renal artery stenosis and may be useful in decision making. A prospective analysis will be required to evaluate the clinical validity of the algorithm.