昆明市“十四五”时期国土空间规划GDP发展指标预测与分析

作为国土空间规划中的核心指标,地区生产总值(GDP)的预测与分析结果直接影响着地区各项专项规划和未来经济社会的发展,本文依据云南省昆明市历年GDP发展水平、社会状况及昆明市“十四五”时期经济社会发展纲要指标要求,采用非线性预测中的多项式预测与指数函数预测,对昆明市“十四五”时期经济社会发展主要指标中的GDP指标进行预测与分析,在对GDP指标预测的基础上,对预测结果进行修正,实现对昆明市“十四五”时期经济社会发展GDP指标的准确控制及优化,并将最终分析结果和市政府下达的指标进行验证,契合度较高,可见本文采取的方法有较高的可执行性,对正在开展的昆明市“十四五”时期经济社会发展各项主要指标预测与分析有较强的指导和借鉴作用。

The Prediction and Analysis of GDP Development Index of Land Space Planning in the Period of"14th Five-year Plan"in Kunming

As the core index of land spatial planning,the prediction and analysis results of regional GDP directly affect the regional special planning and future economic and social development,by using polynomial prediction and exponential function prediction in nonlinear prediction,this paper forecasts and analyzes the GDP index of Kunming's economic and social development during the“14th Five-year Plan”period.On the basis of GDP index prediction,the prediction results are modified to realize the accurate control and optimization of Kunming's economic and social development GDP index during the“14th Five-year Plan”period,and the final analysis results are verified with the indicators issued by the municipal government,which shows that the method adopted in this paper has high enforceability,and has a strong guidance and reference for the prediction and analysis of the main indicators of Kunming's economic and social development in the“14th Five-year Plan”period.