基于改进SPA-IAHP 赋权与集对分析法的高海拔公路施工成本风险评价

针对高海拔地区公路建设成本超支问题，提出基于改进SPA-IAHP 赋权与集对分析法的高海拔公路施工成本风险评价方法。分析高海拔环境特点对施工成本的影响，构建高海拔公路施工成本风险评价体系；采用动态专家可信度对区间层次分析法的权重区间值进行改进，结合集对三元联系数计算权重精确值。通过案例，应用集对分析法对高海拔公路施工成本风险进行综合评价，判断指标风险等级和发展趋势，提出关键风险的控制措施，以期为高海拔地区公路施工成本风险管理提供理论参考。

Risk Assessment of High-Altitude Highway Construction Cost Based on Improved SPA-IAHP Weighting and Set Pair Analysis

To settle the problem of highway construction cost overruns in high altitude areas, a risk evaluation method based on improved SPA-IAHP weighting and set pair analysis is proposed for analyzing high altitude highway construction cost. First, this paper analyzes the impact of high-altitude environmental characteristics on construction cost, and a risk evaluation index system for high-altitude highway construction cost is established. Second, the dynamic expert credibility is used to modify the weight interval value in the interval analytical hierarchy process, and the accurate value of the weight is calculated based on the set pair ternary connection number. Finally, using a case study, this paper applies the set pair analysis method to evaluate the high-altitude highway construction cost risk, judge the index risk level and development trend, and propose control measures of key risks, in order to provide theoretical references for highway construction cost risk management in high altitude areas.