| 基于元胞自动机理论的电力负荷空间分布预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨丽徙王金风陈根永王家耀. 基于元胞自动机理论的电力负荷空间分布预测[J]. 电网技术, 2007, 27(4): 15-20 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨丽徙王金风陈根永王家耀 |
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| 作者单位： | 郑州大学 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据元胞自动机(CA)的基本理论及其在城市动态演化模拟中的应用，提出了新的电力负荷空间分布预测方法。该方法从元胞自动机的基本定义出发，研究了CA理论对于电力负荷空间分布预测的适用性，提出了电力负荷元胞、元胞样区、元胞时空数据库、样本数据库的概念，制定了考虑多种相关因素的负荷元胞转换规则和相关参数，并进行了简单的试验。算例结果说明了该方法的可行性及其预测结果的合理性。
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷空间分布预测 元胞自动机 负荷元胞 活力值 转换规则 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-02-28 |
Load Spatial Distribution Forecasting Model on Cellular Automata Theory |
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| Abstract: | Based on the Cellular Automata (CA) theory and its application on city dynamic development simulation, a new power load spatial distribution forecasting model is proposed. From the essential definition of CA, the applicability of the CA theory for load forecasting is studied. The load cellular, cellular sample areas, as well as the space- time and stylebook databases are conceptually proposed. With multi-correlation factors about the power loads considered, transforming rules and related parameters are established. The feasibility and the rationality of the proposed model are validated on a testing experiment system. |
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| Keywords: | power load spatial distribution forecasting cellular automata load cellular energy value transformation rule |
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