长江下游航道承载力指标与评价方法研究

依托黄金水道建设长江经济带是国家重大发展战略。随着经济社会发展，长江两岸对航道等级提出了更高需求，航道承载能力成为迫切需要研究的问题。针对长江下游航道特点，初步提出了航道承载力的内涵，并初步建立了长江下游航道承载力评价体系和评价方法。根据长江下游湖口至南京河段航道约束因素分析，基于“驱动力-状态-影响”(DSI)模型，结合层次分析法，将承载力评价指标分为目标层、准则层、要素层和指标层4个层次，进而构建了长江下游航道承载力评价体系。构造了各层次判断矩阵并进行一致性检验，探讨了航道承载力评价的量化方法，从而确定了指标权重并对各类指标进行了标准化处理，最后提出了航道承载力初步评价方法，为长江下游的航道承载力评价提供依据。

Study on the indexes and evaluation method of carrying capacity of the navigation channel in the lower Yangtze River

Relying on the golden waterway to build the Yangtze River Economic Belt is a major national development strategy in China. With the economic and social development, higher demands have been proposed on the Yangtze River navigation channel, therefore, it is urgent to study the carrying capacity of the navigation channel. Based on the characteristics of the lower Yangtze River, the concept of the carrying capacity of the navigation channel is proposed, and a preliminary evaluation system and an evaluation method are established. In this study, based on the analysis of the constraint factors of the navigation channel between the HuKou and Nanjing reaches in the lower Yangtze River, an evaluation system for the carrying capacity of the navigation channel was constructed using the "Driving force-State-Influence" (DSI) model and the analytic hierarchy method. This system includes four levels - the target level, the criteria level, the feature level, and the indicator level. In order to determine the index weight, a judgment matrix of each level was constructed and a consistency test was carried out. Then, the quantification method was discussed, the weight value for each index was given and the indexes were standardized. Finally, a preliminary comprehensive evaluation method for determining the carrying capacity of the navigation channel was proposed, to provide a basis for further evaluation of the carrying capacity of the navigation channel in the low reaches of the Yangtze River.