Performance and cost modelling taking into account the uncertainties and sensitivities of current and next-generation PEM water electrolysis technology |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Engineering and Design, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Institute of Plant and Process Technology, 85748 Garching, Germany;2. Linde GmbH, Linde Engineering, 82049 Pullach, Germany;1. College of Ocean Engineering and Energy, Guangdong Ocean University, No.1, Haida Road, Zhanjiang, 524088, PR China;2. Laboratory of Integrated Technology for “Urban and Rural Mines” Exploitation, Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.2 Nengyuan Road, Wushan, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510640, PR China;3. Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy Research and Development, PR China;4. School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Shaanxi University of Science and Technology, No.43, Taihuabei Road, Xian, 710016, PR China;1. National Research Center “Kurchatov Institute”, 1, Akademika Kurchatova Sq., 123182 Moscow, Russia;2. National Research University “Moscow Power Engineering Institute”, 14, Krasnokazarmennaya St., 111250 Moscow, Russia;3. HySA Infrastructure Center of Competence, Faculty of Engineering, North-West University, Potchefstroom 2531, South Africa;4. A.N. Nesmeyanov Institute of Organoelement Compounds, Russian Academy of Sciences, 28, Vavilova St., 119991 Moscow, Russia;1. College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, PR, China;2. College of Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing at Karamay, Karamay 834000, PR, China;1. Department of Mechanical Engineering of Yuan Ze University ChungeLi District, Taoyuan City, Taiwan;2. Department of Mechanical Engineering /Fuel Cell Centre, Yuan Ze University, ChungeLi District, Taoyuan City, Taiwan;1. School of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, 830023, China;2. Key Laboratory of Hydrogen Energy Utilization Technology, Xinjiang Institute of Engineering, Urumqi, 830023, China;3. School of Electrical Engineering, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830023, China;1. Institute for Sustainable Energy Technology and Mobility, Esslingen University of Applied Sciences, Kanalstraße 33, Baden Württemberg, Esslingen am Neckar, 73728, Germany;2. Institute for Energy Conversion and Storage, Ulm University, Albert-Einstein-Allee 47, Baden Württemberg, Ulm, 89081, Germany |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents a bottom-up approach to the assessment of model performance and costs of a proton-exchange-membrane electrolysis considering cell, stack and process levels. The cell voltage is modelled dependent on current density and detailed models for stack, investment and hydrogen costs are developed. Taking into account current research on PEM electrolysis, such as the use of thinner membranes or low precious metal loading on the electrodes, allows the prediction of next generation's efficiency and costs. By comparison of a current and next-generation PEM electrolysis, the effectiveness of individual development steps was assessed and remaining space for efficiency and cost improvement was identified. This can help to prioritize and to focus on development steps which are most effective.In the next generation, efficiency will be increased even at higher current density operation. Thus, specific stack costs will drop to less than half of present day costs which is decisive to achieve lower hydrogen production costs in the next generation. Specific installed costs and hydrogen production costs of the current and next generation are calculated for plant sizes up to 100 MWDC and reveal significant cost decrease for plant capacities up to 25 MWDC while only changing slightly for capacities larger than this.Costs are always subject to uncertainties due to model assumptions and boundary conditions that need to be defined. Uncertainties and the sensitivities of the model are estimated and assessed to provide an indication of the actual cost range. Main cost model uncertainties are identified to arise from membrane electrode and stack assembly costs, civil engineering and construction surcharge as well as the electrical system. Hydrogen costs are dominated by operating costs and therefore are highly sensitive to the annual operating hours and the electricity price, which have a greater impact on the hydrogen costs than the model assumptions for capital costs. |
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| Keywords: | PEM water electrolysis Hydrogen Techno-economic analysis Electrolysis development Large scale electrolysis |
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