基于VAR模型的新疆金沟河气象要素与径流关系分析

为探究气候变化下金沟河流域气象要素与径流之间的关系，根据新疆金沟河流域2006-2015年的月平均降水、积雪覆盖率、气温和径流资料，采用VAR模型方法分析了降水、积雪覆盖率、气温变化与径流变化之间的相互响应关系及响应程度。结果表明：降水、积雪覆盖率、气温与径流之间互相影响，但径流对降水、积雪覆盖率和气温的影响范围更大；径流对于降水、积雪覆盖率和气温的冲击响应方向不太一致，而降水、积雪覆盖率和气温对于径流冲击的响应均具有滞后性；通过方差分解可知，除径流自身冲击外，降水、积雪覆盖率和气温对径流变化的贡献程度依次为：气温 > 积雪覆盖率 > 降水，金沟河流域径流的主要影响因素为气温。研究结果可为流域内的各类水文计算提供参考依据。

Relationship between meteorological elements and runoff in Jingou River Basin of Xinjiang based on the VAR model

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and runoff in Jingou River Basin under the influence of climate change. Based on the monthly average precipitation, snow cover, temperature and runoff data of Jingou River Basin of Xinjiang from 2006 to 2015, the vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used to analyze the interaction and response mechanism between precipitation, snow cover, temperature and runoff. The results show that precipitation, snow cover, temperature and runoff interact with each other, but runoff has a greater impact on the rest. The response directions of runoff to precipitation, snow cover and temperature shocks are not consistent, whereas the response of precipitation, snow cover and temperature to runoff shocks is lagging. According to the variance decomposition, the contribution of precipitation, snow cover and temperature to runoff change is in the following order, temperature > snow cover > precipitation, excluding the impact of runoff on itself. Temperature is the main influencing factor of runoff in Jingou River Basin. These results can provide some reference for all kinds of hydrological calculations in this basin.