人类活动及气候变化对河北省地表径流量的影响

利用河北省1956-2000年水文、气象资料,对现状下垫面时间进行了界定,建立了下垫面变化前后降水与地表径流的相关关系,定量评价了人类活动对地表径流量的影响。根据现状下垫面条件下的径流量系列与气候要素(降水量、蒸发量、气温)之间的关系,建立了对数型非线性统计模型,其相关显著,灵敏度较高。根据2030、2050年气候情景数据预测河北省地表径流量的变化:与标准气候值相比,2030年降水量将增加4%～12%,气温升高1.1℃～1.4℃,径流量为106.5～128.9×108m3;2050年降水量将增加4%～14%;气温升高1.7℃～2.2℃,径流量为95.7～123.0×108m3。

Impact of Human Activities and Climatic Change on Surface Runoff in Hebei Province

Using hydrological and meteorologic data of Hebei Province from 1956 to 2000, judged the time of actual land cover, established the correlativity between precipitation and surface runoff before and behind the land cover change, estimated the influnce for surface runoff from human activity. According to the relationship between surface runoff series under actual land cover conditions and cli- mate factors （precipitation, evaporation, temperature）, estabished the logarithmic nonlinear statistical model, it＇s of obvious correlation and high sensitivity. According climate scenarios data of year 2030 and 2050 to predict the change on surface runoff, compared with the standard climate values, in 2030 year, precipitation will increase by 4% to 12% , temperature will rise 1. 1℃- 1.4℃, surface runoff will be 106. 5 × 10^8 - 128.9 ×10^8m^3 ; In 2050 year, precipitation will increase by 4% to 14%, temperature will rise 1.7℃ -2. 2℃, surface runoff will be 95.7 × 10^8 - 123.0×10^8m^3.