基于SD模型的深圳市水资源承载力研究

基于深圳市社会、经济、环境现状，在综合考虑水资源质和量的基础上，采用系统动力学方法建立深圳市水资源承载力模型，并对深圳市水资源承载力进行计算评价，结论是深圳市水资源承栽力普遍小于1。通过对16种方案的计算比较，提出进行产业结构调整、提高污水处理水平、提高节水程度、加强人口控制可以有效地提高深圳市水资源承载力，到2030年，其值能接近于1。

Study on the water resources supporting capacity of Shenzhen based on the SD model

Based on present situation of society, economy and environment in Shenzhen, by overall evaluating the nature and quantity of water resources and using the systems dynamics method, the water resources supporting capacity model for Shenzhen is established and the water resources supporting capacity of Shenzhen is calculated. The conclusion is that Shenzhen/s water resources supporting capacity is smaller than 1 generally. Based on computation and comparison with 16 kind of schemes, it can be concluded that making the industry restructure, raising the sewage treatment level, enhancing saving water degree and strengthening the population control can enhance Shenzhen water resources supporting capacity effectively and make its value approach in 1 in 2030.