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| 三峡特大流域洪水预报方案运用与分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 李春红,王建平,王玉华,任立良.三峡特大流域洪水预报方案运用与分析[J].水利学报,2011,42(5). |
| 作者姓名： | 李春红 王建平 王玉华 任立良 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 国网电力科学研究院南京南瑞集团公司,江苏南京,210003 2. 三峡梯级调度通信中心,湖北宜昌,443000 3. 河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏南京,210098 |
| 基金项目： | “十一五”国家科技支撑计划(2008BA29B09) |
| 摘 要： | 三峡工程流域地质特征复杂，暴雨中心多，洪水组成类型多种多样，采用单一模型难以适应各种不同情况的来水预报，需要多模型、多方案的组合预报互为补充。基于572个遥测站点，制作了三峡工程以上覆盖面积约39万km2的流域洪水预报方案。通过2008年汛期7场洪水的检验，证明方案可行、满足需要。洪水预报实践经验表明：多模型多方案组合预报、半分布式模型选用和通过相关关系确定各单元河网汇流参数以及流域分级预报、逐级检验是大型、特大型流域预报方案成功制作的关键；同时未来降雨接入、实时校正是提高实时预报精度、增长预见期的有效手段。 |
| 关 键 词： | 三峡水库 洪水预报 分级预报 未来降雨 实时校正 |
Operation and analysis of flood forecasting scheme for the Three Gorges Project |
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| LI Chun-hong,WANG Jian-ping,WANG Yu-hua and REN Li-liang.Operation and analysis of flood forecasting scheme for the Three Gorges Project[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2011,42(5). | |
| Authors: | LI Chun-hong WANG Jian-ping WANG Yu-hua and REN Li-liang |
| Affiliation: | LI Chun-hong1,WANG Jian-ping1,WANG Yu-hua2,REN Li-liang3(1.State Grid Electric Power Research Institute,Nanjing 210003,China,2.Three Gorges Cascade Dispatching and Communication Center,Yichang 443133,3.State Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Utilization and Project Safety,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) |
| Abstract: | Since the geomorphology characteristic of river basin in the Three Gorges Project is complicated and the storm rainfall possesses multiple centroid,the flood occurred to the project will be composed of various types.It is necessary to establish a combined flood forecasting scheme integrated with multiple model and multiple operation scheme to be adapted to this complicated situation.A flood forecasting scheme based on 572 telemetered gauging stations was developed.Its feasibility was verified by the examina... |
| Keywords: | Three Gorges reservoir flood forecast cascaded forecast coming rainfall real-time correction |
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