中国液化石油气生产与进出口现状及展望

2009年,液化石油气市场价格降低和裂解原料需求增加,使炼油厂液化石油气产量增长幅度明显落后于原油加工量增幅。价格下降刺激民用需求回升,同时炼油厂限制商品液化石油气产量带来的供应缺口使液化石油气进口量跃升57%,升至409×104t,并回到2007年的进口量水平。出口增长因主要出口市场越南进口量减少而减慢。国内天然气市场正处在高速增长的时期,过去5年来天然气消费量年均增幅达17%,预计2010年将达到1050×108m3,受冲击最大的是燃料油和液化石油气,液化石油气需求增长将受到严重阻碍。分析指出,燃气市场结构的变化迫使炼油厂在加工量提高的前景下谋求为增产的液化石油气寻找销路,包括裂解原料在内的化工利用可能是最好的利用途径。

Status and outlook of production and import & export of LPG in China

In 2009, with the decrease in LPG price and the growth in demand for cracking feedstock, the increasing degree of LPG production lagged far behind that of crude oil processing in refineries. The falling LPG price leaded to an upswing of domestic demand, while the supply shortfall from the reduction of commercial gas production in refinery plants resulted in a surge of LPG imports by 57%, being up to 4090 thousand tons in 2009, which was at the same level of that in 2007. On the other hand, the increasing degree of LPG exports was slowing down by the decrease of the import volume from our main importing countries represented by Vietnam. As domestic natural gas market is in fast developing period presently, the annual natural gas consumption increased in average by 17% during the past five years and is expected to be 105 bcm in volume, so great impact will have on the fuel oil and LPG, especially the domestic LPG demand will be seriously restricted. In view of this, through a thorough analysis, this paper points out that under the changing structure of fuel gas market, refinery plants are curiously looking forward to finding more market outlets for their increased yield of LPG, the best solution of which is to turn to the chemical use including the cracking feedstock.