| 价格变化下PPP项目残值风险预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张亚静,袁竞峰,程立,李启明.价格变化下PPP项目残值风险预测研究[J].建筑经济,2019,40(1):51-57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张亚静 袁竞峰 程立 李启明 |
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| 作者单位： | 东南大学土木工程学院,江苏南京,210096;华发股份南京公司,江苏南京,211100 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析PPP项目价格变化对项目残值风险的影响,并将PPP项目残值风险分解为经济价值残值风险和社会价值残值风险,构建价格变化下的残值风险计算模型。在此基础上,以香港西遂项目为案例,运用时间序列理论,预测价格影响因素的变化,进而对残值风险进行预测,验证该模型的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | PPP模式 残值风险 价格变化 风险预测 |
Research on Residual Value Risk Prediction of Public-Private-Partnership Projects under the Changing Price |
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| ZHANG Yajing,YUAN Jingfeng,CHENG Li,LI Qiming.Research on Residual Value Risk Prediction of Public-Private-Partnership Projects under the Changing Price[J].Construction Economy,2019,40(1):51-57. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yajing YUAN Jingfeng CHENG Li LI Qiming |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Civil Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;Huafa Industrial Share Nanjing Company,Nanjing 211100,China) |
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| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the effect of projects’ price change on PPP projects,decomposes residual-value risk in PPP project into economic value residual risk and social value residual risk,and constructes a prediction framework of PPP projects’ residual-value risk. On the basis,takes Hongkong Xisui project as an example,predicts the changes of price influencing factors with time series analysis,and predicts the residual-value risk,to prove the effectiveness of the model. |
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| Keywords: | PPP mode residual-value risk price changes risk prediction |
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