| 应用改进的灰色GM(1，1)模型进行长期电力需求预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈章潮 熊 岗. 应用改进的灰色GM(1，1)模型进行长期电力需求预测[J]. 电力系统自动化, 1993, 17(7): 20-24 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈章潮 熊 岗 |
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| 作者单位： | (上海交通大学) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文从理论上分析了灰色系统预测GM(1，1)模型的适用条件，针对电力 系统中电力需求增长的特点，提出了分段最优GM(1，1)模型，利用电力 需求的增长与国民经济增长的相关关系，把分段最优GM(1，1)模型应用 于长期电力需求预测，并用实例证明了此方法的可行性。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统理论，负荷预测，电力需求 |
| 收稿时间： | 1900-01-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 1900-01-01 |
LONG-TERM LOAD FORECASTING FOR PUDONG NEW AREA OF SHANGHAI USING GREY THEORY |
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| Chen Zhangchao,Xiong Gang. LONG-TERM LOAD FORECASTING FOR PUDONG NEW AREA OF SHANGHAI USING GREY THEORY[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 1993, 17(7): 20-24 |
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| Authors: | Chen Zhangchao Xiong Gang |
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| Affiliation: | Shanghai Jiao Tong University |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the application conditions of the grey prediction model GM[1, 1 ] are studied. The method of the sectioning optimization for GM (1, 1) model is proposed in the long-term load forecasting. The load is forecasted in accordance with the relations between the increments of the electric power demand and the increments of the national economy. The calculation result proved that this method is feasible and effective. |
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| Keywords: | Grey Prediction Model Load Forecasting Electric Power Demand Sectioning Optimization |
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