灰色系统理论在斜拉桥动态可靠度分析中的应用

分析斜拉桥结构动态可靠度时,目前抗力衰减预测的基本模型经验性都很大,对具体结构并不一定适用.采用灰色系统理论方法,将结构抗力及多个影响因素看作一个系统进行综合分析,对斜拉桥主梁关键截面抗力衰减进行了预测.这种系统处理的方法将多种因素的影响进行了动态的融合考虑,更接近实际结构抗力变化趋势.针对承载能力极限状态,可以计算得到斜拉桥结构的动态可靠度指标.将灰色系统预测与大跨度斜拉桥结构的健康检测相结合,对研究抗力衰减的预测将是十分适宜的.

Time-dependent reliability analysis of cable-stayed bridge using gray system theory

Prediction of resistance deterioration is an important part of time-dependent reliability analysis of cable-stayed bridge.Because the basic prediction models are mostly experiential and are not suitable to actual structures,the gray system theory considering structure resistance and the main influencing factors as a whole system can be used to predict the resistance deterioration.This system theory method deals with the main factors' time-dependent influence synthetically,which is close to the actual resistance-deterioration trend.According to bearing-capacity limit state,the time-dependent reliability index of cable-stayed bridge can be calculated.It will be an efficient approach to analyze cable-stayed bridge's resistance deterioration;and it is feasible to predict resistance deterioration by using gray system theory with structure health monitoring together.