山东省当地典型降水与黄河来水丰枯遭遇分析

鲁西北地区水资源较为贫乏,对黄河依赖性很强,但当黄河来水较少时,若鲁东南地区降水较丰,则可利用鲁东南临沂市较为丰富的水资源加以补给。采用Copula函数法,研究了黄河来水与临沂市以及临沂市与鲁西北德州市之间的二维丰枯遭遇概率,分析了黄河与临沂市、临沂市与德州市之间的丰枯互补可行性,并与统计法进行对比。结果表明:其对于水资源的优化利用具有重要意义,为后续制定山东省与黄河水的联合调控决策提供技术支撑。

Study of the wetness-dryness encountering of local typical precipitation of Shandong Province and runoff of the Yellow River

The water resources in Northwest of Shandong Province is relatively poor and heavily depends on the Yellow River. But when the runoff of Yellow River is very small and rainfall in Southeast of Shandong Province is relatively abundant, the abundant water resources of Linyi city in southeast Shandong could be used for supplying the Northwest of Shandong Province. The Copula functions were applied to study the 2-dimensional wetness-dryness encountering probabilities between the precipitation of Yellow River and Linyi, and of Dezhou and Linyi. Their feasibility of wetness-dryness complementarity were analyzed . A comparison between the results using the Copula functions and Statistical method were conducted. The results showed that, the conclusion was reasonable, it had a great significance in optimally utilizing water resources and provided a technical support for making the united regulation and decision between Shandong Province and the Yellow River.