Calculation of hazard indices for highway-railway crossings in Canada

This paper presents a method for deriving the distribution of future accidents at a particular crossing based on several crossing characteristics. The accident history of a crossing is assumed to be a Poisson process, with its parameter a linear function of certain predictor variables. This parameter, the hazard index, is formed by solving maximum likelihood normal equations using an iterative process. Test procedures are given for the model using asymptotic results. Ramifications of these results, relative to the present government allocation methods for crossing upgrading are discussed.