基于温度概率预测的地下电力电缆可靠性模型研究

地下电力电缆周围气象温度具有不确定性。通过考虑气象温度对地下电力电缆可靠运行的实时影响,借助广义极值分布(Generalized extreme value distribution,GEV)对气象温度进行概率分布拟合,在此基础上分析了地下电力电缆的温度场和热阻等效电路,提出了基于温度概率预测的地下电力电缆可靠性模型,从而有效预测地下电力电缆的导体温度。数值仿真计算与实际测量结果的比较验证了该预测模型的有效性和准确性,为地下电力电缆可靠运行和温度在线监测提供了重要的技术支撑。

Research on Underground Power Cables Reliability Model based on Probabilistic Forecasting of Temperature

Exterior meteorological environment of underground power cables is of uncertainty. By considering the real time influence of meteorological temperature on reliable operation of underground power cables, the generalized extreme value （GEV） distribution of meteorological temperature is firstly derived. The temperature field and equivalent heat circuit of underground power cables are then analyzed on the basis. In addition, a probabilistic temperature forecasting of underground power cables reliability model is developed in this paper. Based on the model, the conductor temperature of underground power cables can be forecasted. The effec- tiveness and accuracy of the proposed model is verified by comparing the numerical results given by the model with the actual measurement data. The proposed model will be highly useful for reliability operation and safety monitoring of underground power cables.