Future U.S. energy technologies: Cost and oil-import tradeoffs

Many new energy technologies offer the potential of moderating the rising costs of energy while, at the same time, reducing dependence on imported oil. The problem of evaluating which technologies offer the most promise is complex and requires analyzing competition in the marketplace among new and existing technologies over a long span of time. This competition would occur under a variety of future situations affecting energy resources, costs, and technology availability. With the aid of a linear-programming model, we have conducted such an evaluation. The results indicate that the most promising technologies include the light-water reactor, residential and commercial conservation, enhanced oil recovery, shale-oil recovery, industrial cogeneration, the heat pump, and coal liquefaction. This usage yields a decline in oil imports to about half present levels, exactly when depending upon the situation. These results need to be evaluated in light of environmental and other effects not included in the model.