中国能源电力碳中和实现路径及实施关键问题

结合中国经济社会和能源电力发展的现实国情，分析中国碳中和机理框架和中国能源互联网减排思路。按照全社会减排成本最优，应用综合评估模型MESSAGE研究提出中国全社会碳中和整体路径和能源电力系统转型路径，结果表明：中国2060年前全社会实现碳中和路径总体可按尽早达峰、快速减排、全面中和3个阶段推进，全社会碳排放2028年左右达峰，2060年90%能源需求由非化石能源满足，全社会2/3的能源使用均为电能，实现能源使用体系全面转型。同时着重分析了实现碳中和过程中减排速度和节奏、电力系统平衡调节、转型成本和疏导等关键问题。

Realization Pathways and Key Problems of Carbon Neutrality in China's Energy and Power System

Based on the actual national conditions of China’s economic and social, energy and power development, this paper analyzes China’s carbon neutralization mechanism framework and puts forward the mitigation solutions for carbon emissions with China energy interconnection. With the target of optimal cost for achieving carbon neutrality for the whole society, the MESSAGE integrated assessment model (IAM) is used to study the overall pathways for China's whole society carbon neutralization and the transition pathways for energy and power system based on the China energy interconnection. The results show that the carbon neutrality pathways before 2060 for China can be advanced in view of three stages of early peaking, rapid mitigation and overall neutrality. The carbon emissions will reach the peak around 2028; 90% of the energy demand will be met by clean energy in 2060, and the electricity will account for two-thirds in the whole society end-use energy consumption, achieving the total transition of energy use system. Besides, some key issues for achieving carbon neutralization are analyzed, including emission reduction speed and pace, power system balance and adjustment, and transition cost and allocation.