基于时序运行模拟的新能源配置储能替代火电规划模型

随着风电、光伏自身成本不断下降，经济性上逐步具有替代火电的条件，同时，随着风电、光伏替代火电规模的增加，系统需要引入储能来应对系统不断增强的净负荷波动。为更加科学地量化评估新能源配置储能替代火电的经济性和规模，首先建立计及电力系统灵活性需求、基于精细化时序曲线运行模拟的电源和储能联合优化规划模型，以系统总成本最低为优化目标，考虑投资决策约束和运行约束，统筹优化不同成本情景下的电源和储能容量，提出新能源配置储能替代火电的经济性分析流程。其次，基于以上模型方法，优化计算某区域电网高、中、低3种成本情景下的电源和储能容量，并分析不同成本情景下新能源配置储能替代火电的演变过程。最后，提出新能源配置储能不同程度替代火电的条件。

Planning Model for Renewable Energy with Energy Storage Replacing Thermal Power Based on Time Series Operation Simulation

As the cost for wind power and photovoltaic power generation continues to decline, the economic conditions are gradually becoming feasible for wind power and photovoltaic power to replace thermal power. At the same time, as the scale for wind power and photovoltaic power to replace the thermal power increases, the power system needs to introduce energy storage to cope with the increasing net load fluctuations of the power system. In order to quantify and evaluate the economy and scale for renewable energy with energy storage to replace thermal power in a more scientific way, this paper firstly established a joint power generation and energy storage optimization planning model based on the operation simulation of refined time series curves with consideration of the flexibility requirements of the power system. By taking the lowest total system cost as the optimization goal and considering the investment decision-making constraints and operation constraints, the proposed model can coordinate and optimize the capacities of power generation and energy storage under different cost scenarios. The economic analysis process for renewable energy with energy storage to replace thermal power is proposed. Secondly, the proposed model and method were used to optimize the power generation and energy storage capacities for a regional power grid under three scenarios of high-, medium-, and low-cost, and the evolution process for renewable energy with energy storage to replace the thermal power under different cost scenarios was quantitatively analyzed. Finally, the conditions for renewable energy with energy storage to replace thermal power in varying degrees are proposed.