“新基建”对中国“十四五”电力需求和电网规划的影响分析

近年来，中国已将“新基建”纳入国家发展战略，明确提出立足于高新科技基础设施建设，建成集约高效、经济适用、智能绿色、安全可靠的现代化基础设施体系。“十四五”期间，为了实现疫情后经济复苏，实现创新高质量发展，“新基建”将成为投资重点。“新基建”中5G基站、大数据中心、电动汽车等基础设施布点密集，能耗密度大，大规模发展对电网安全稳定运行冲击大。对“新基建”各类基础设施“十四五”期间发展趋势进行展望，重点对5G基站、数据中心等“数字新基建”的能耗模型进行分析建模，量化分析“十四五”期间“新基建”对中国电力需求和电网发展的影响，为科学开展能源电力“十四五”规划提供参考。

Investigations on the Impact of New Infrastructure on Electricity Forecast and Power System Planning during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

In recent years, China has incorporated “new infrastructure” into its national development strategy, clearly stating that a modern infrastructure system should be developed on the basis of new and high technology infrastructure. This infrastructure system is expected to be intensive, efficient, affordable, intelligent, green, safe, and reliable. During the 14th five-year plan period, the new infrastructure will become an investment priority in order for post-pandemic economic recovery and high-quality development driven by innovation. This paper focuses on the development trend and energy consumption model of the new infrastructure, such as 5G base stations, data centers, and electric vehicles. The electricity demand of the new infrastructure in the 14th five-year plan period is forecasted, and the impact of new infrastructure on power system is analyzed, which will provide a reference for the energy and power system planning in the 14th five-year plan period.