基于分布式神经网络的苹果价格预测方法

针对传统农产品价格预测模型在大数据场景下无法快速准确对苹果市场价格进行预测的问题，提出一种基于分布式神经网络的苹果价格预测方法。首先，研究影响苹果市场价格的相关因素，选取苹果历史价格、替代品历史价格、居民消费水平和原油价格四个特征作为神经网络模型的输入；然后，构建蕴含价格波动规律的分布式神经网络模型，实现对苹果市场价格的短期预测。实验结果显示，基于分布式神经网络的苹果市场价格短期预测模型具有较高的预测精度，平均相对误差仅为0.50%，满足苹果市场价格预测的要求。实验结果表明，分布式神经网络模型能够通过自学习特性揭示出苹果市场价格的波动规律和发展趋势，所提方法能为稳定苹果市场秩序和市场价格宏观调控提供科学依据，有助于降低价格波动带来的危害，帮助果农规避市场风险。

Apple price prediction method based on distributed neural network

Concerning the issue that the traditional price prediction model for agricultural product cannot predict the market price of apple quickly and accurately under the big data scenario， an apple price prediction method based on distributed neural network was proposed. Firstly， the relative factors that affect the market price of apple were studied， and the historical price of apple， historical price of alternatives， household consumption level and oil price were selected as the input of the neural network. Secondly， a distributed neural network prediction model containing price fluctuation law was constructed to implement the short-term prediction for the market price of apple. Experimental results show that the proposed model has a high prediction accuracy， and the average relative error is only 0.50%， which satisfies the requirements of apple market price prediction. It indicates that the distributed neural network model can reveal the price fluctuation law and development trend of apple market price through the characteristic of self-learning. The proposed method not only can provide scientific basis for stabilizing apple market order and macroeconomic regulation of market price， but also can reduce the harms brought by price fluctuations， helping farmers to avoid the market risks.