基于GIS的广西暴雨风险度实时评估系统

针对精细化、定量化的暴雨灾害风险度实时评估方法的缺乏，应用广西的暴雨日数和日降雨量等气象数据、历史灾情数据、高程和距海距离等地理信息数据，通过研究确定基于承灾体-孕灾环境-致灾因子-抗灾力等多源数据的广西暴雨致险因子的辨识技术和序列构建方法，构建了针对农业、社会经济等不同承灾体的，基于暴雨危险度、孕灾环境脆弱度、暴雨灾害易损度和抗灾力的暴雨灾害风险度实时评估模型和等级指标，并运用组件式地理信息系统(GIS)二次开发技术，以实时评估模块为核心，研发了基于GIS技术的广西暴雨风险度实时评估系统，简化和规范了暴雨风险度实时评估操作流程。应用所提系统对2011年9月29日的强台风“纳沙”带来的暴雨风险度进行评估，评估结果与灾情实况相符。

Real-time evaluation system of rainstorm risk degree based on GIS for Guangxi

Concerning the lack of refined and quantized real-time evaluation of rainstorm disaster risk level, this paper applied meteorological data, historical disaster data, height and distance from the sea of Guangxi, and confirmed the identification technique and data sequence building method of hazard-formative factors of rainstorm of Guangxi based on hazard-bearing body, the hazard-formative environment, hazard-formative factors, and anti-disaster capability. Real-time evaluation model and grade index of rainstorm disaster risk level based on risk, subsequently environment fragile degree, vulnerability and anti-disaster capability were constructed for different hazard-bearing body, such as agriculture and social economy. And then the rainstorm risk level of real-time evaluation system was developed, with real-time evaluation model as the core. By using the Geographic Information System (GIS) secondary development techniques, the operating process of rainstorm risk level real-time evaluation was simplified and standardized. By using the proposed system to evaluate the violent typhoon named Neuchatel on September 29, 2011, the experimental results show that it is consistent with disaster condition.