基于PLSR的中山市水资源压力演变特征与趋势

以珠江三角洲腹地城市中山市为研究目标，分析城市社会经济发展多个指标对水资源压力的影响，并利用偏最小二乘回归（PLSR）方法对1991年以来中山市水资源压力的演变特征和趋势进行分析和预测。结果表明，节水水平和第三产业发展是中山市水资源压力的主要影响因素。1991-2011年间，中山市的水资源压力整体上呈先降后升的变化趋势，并将可能在今后20年的时间内保持上升趋势。中山市水资源压力与人均GDP之间则呈现出N形环境库尔兹涅曲线特征，表明随着经济发展到一定程度，中山市水资源压力将有所下降，但同时也面临着重新上升的压力。

Evolution characteristics and trend of water resources stress of Zhongshan City based on PLSR method

Taking Zhongshan City, a hinterland city in the Pearl River Delta, as a case study, the influence of urban socioeconomic development indicators on the water resources stress was examined. The partial least squares regression method was used to analyze the evolution characteristics and predict the trend of the water resources stress of Zhongshan City since 1991. The results show that the water conservation level and the development of the tertiary industry were the principal factors influencing the water resources stress of the city. During the period from 1991 to 2011, the water resources stress of the city first decreased, then increased on the whole, and may maintain an increasing trend over the coming 20 years. The relationship between the water resources stress and per-capita GDP of Zhongshan City was characterized by an N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve, indicating that when the economy develops to a certain extent, the water resources stress of the city may decease, but, meanwhile, rising pressure on water resources in Zhongshan City may still exist.