| 多模型自适应预报及其在电力规划负荷预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩曾晋,牛志强. 多模型自适应预报及其在电力规划负荷预报中的应用[J]. 控制理论与应用, 1987, 4(1): 90-97 |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩曾晋 牛志强 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学(韩曾晋)，清华大学(牛志强) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文提出一种多模型自适应预报方法,预报系统由几个并行的多步预报器组成,最终预报由Bayes决策律决定。本法适用于随机快时变参数动态过程的预报,在我国工业用电量长期预报中应用此法获得了良好的效果。
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| 收稿时间： | 1985-04-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 1986-07-14 |
MULTIMODEL ADAPTIVE FORECASTING METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION TO LOAD FORECASTING IN POWER SYSTEM PLANNING |
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| Han Zengjin,Nu Zhichung. MULTIMODEL ADAPTIVE FORECASTING METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION TO LOAD FORECASTING IN POWER SYSTEM PLANNING[J]. Control Theory & Applications, 1987, 4(1): 90-97 |
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| Authors: | Han Zengjin Nu Zhichung |
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| Affiliation: | Qinghua University |
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| Abstract: | In this paper a multimodel-based method of adaptive forecasting in presented. The whole adaptive system consists of several multistep self-tuning predictors working in parallel. The final forecast is determined by using Bayes decision rule. This method is especially suitable for the forecasting of dynamic process with stochastic time-varying parameters. Application to the load forecasting for Electric power systems shows the advantage of the method. |
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